Presidential Election:
Polling in Michigan has shown a continual lead for President Obama since the two parties chose their respective candidate at convention. In recent weeks, Governor Romney has seen a significant rise in support as a large number of undecided voters have begun to choose him over the President. Below is a synopsis of polling conducted by five polling firms in Michigan from October 5th through October 17th and the results those polls produced. As you will see, President Obama has maintained an average of a five point lead in Michigan.
|
POLL
|
DATE
|
SAMPLE SIZE
|
MARGIN OF ERROR
|
OBAMA (D)
|
Romney (R)
|
SPREAD
|
|
BAYDOUN/FOSTER
|
10/23/12
|
1122
|
2.9%
|
47%
|
47%
|
TIE
|
|
EPIC – MRA
|
10/17/12
|
800
|
3.5%
|
52%
|
46%
|
OBAMA
+6%
|
|
RASMUSSEN REPORTS
|
10/11/12
|
500
|
4.5%
|
52%
|
45%
|
OBAMA
+7%
|
|
LAMBERT EDWARDS/
|
10/10/12
|
600
|
4.0%
|
44%
|
41%
|
OBAMA
+3%
|
|
DENNO RESEARCH
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DETROIT
NEWS
|
10/9/12
|
600
|
4.0%
|
49%
|
42%
|
OBAMA
+7%
|
|
GRAVIS MARKETING
|
10/8/12
|
1122
|
3.2%
|
46%
|
44%
|
OBAMA
+2%
|
Analysis:
At this moment, President Obama holds a
slight advantage in Michigan, which would put Michigan’s 16 Electoral College
Votes in the LEAN OBAMA category. With less than three weeks left
in the race, it would take a considerable Get-Out-The-Vote program, coupled with
depressed Democratic turnout at the polls for Romney to pull off the upset in
Michigan. The reason Michigan is just a lean state for Obama is because a
strong Democratic voter turnout is not guaranteed.
Nationally, it’s a different story. Polls seem
to change daily, but Romney is making significant gains in previous strongholds
for President Obama. In 2008, Obama took a whopping 365 Electoral College
votes (270 needed to win). At this moment, he leads Governor Romney 237
Electoral College Votes to 219 Electoral College Votes in the latest national
analysis. States like Indiana and North Carolina that went for Obama in 2008
are now likely Romney states (26 total electoral votes). Romney also holds
leads in Colorado and
Florida (38 total electoral votes). Should these states hold, Romney would have
257 Electoral College votes. One state
could hold the key to the magic number of 270. That state would be Ohio. No
Republican has ever become President without winning Ohio, so in short, this
entire election boils down to Ohio.
Michigan’s 2012 U.S. Senate race was initially high on the list of toss-up races across the country by many political pundits, but in the last two months, Senator Debbie Stabenow has pulled away from former Congressman Pete Hoekstra making this race a LIKELY DEMOCRATIC seat. Stabenow has never been the most popular senator in the state; she narrowly defeated Republican Spencer Abraham in the generally good Democratic year of 2000, and won by 15 points against an underwhelming Republican in the solid Democratic year of 2006. Her approval ratings are mired in the 40’s, but Stabenow's competitor, Pete Hoekstra, inflicted a fairly serious wound upon himself with a widely panned Super Bowl commercial, and he has trailed consistently in the polls.
Below is a synopsis of polling conducted by four polling firms in Michigan from October 5th through October 11th and the results those polls produced.
POLL
|
DATE
|
SAMPLE SIZE
|
MARGIN OF
ERROR
|
STABENOW (D) HOEKSTRA (R) SPREAD |
||
RASMUSSEN
REPORTS 10/11/12
|
500
|
4.5%
|
51%
|
39%
|
STABENOW +12% ❑
|
|
|
DETROIT NEWS
|
10/8/12
|
600
|
4.0%
|
50%
|
38%
|
STABENOW +12% ❑
|
|
EPIC – MRA
|
10/6/12
|
600
|
3.5%
|
55%
|
35%
|
STABENOW +20% ❑
|
|
BAYDOUN/FOSTER
|
10/5/12
|
1122
|
**
|
51%
|
43%
|
STABENOW +8% ❑
|
US House Elections:
In 2012, Michigan has fourteen Congressional seats up for grabs. Currently, Republican’s hold nine seats and Democrat’s hold five seats. Republicans can expect to return seven of those members to Washington and Democrats will likely return five of those members. That leaves two races up for grabs.
1st District – Congressman
Dan Benishek Michigan's 1st Congressional District covers the Upper Peninsula,
and the northeastern portion of the state's "mitt." The
UP supplies most of the Democratic vote for the district and about half of the
overall vote. Overall, this is marginally Republican political
territory, having given George W. Bush 53 percent of the vote and Barack Obama 50
percent. Former State Representative Gary McDowell, who hails from the Upper
Peninsula, and Dan Benishek, a Tea Party-inspired candidate squared off in 2010 where
Benishek handily defeated McDowell. This time around, Benishek has two years in
D.C. under his belt and a list of tough
votes to contend with. McDowell is in a better position to capitalize on these
issues given that it is a presidential
year, but if Obama runs poorly in the Upper Peninsula, Benishek could survive
the surge from McDowell. At this moment things are trending McDowell’s way. LEAN
DEMOCRATIC.
11th District - The Northwestern Detroit suburbs have long been a GOP stronghold. Congressman Thaddeus McCotter represented this district until May of this year when the 11th then experienced one of the strangest sequences of events in electoral history. McCotter failed to submit enough signatures to qualify for the ballot. That left the GOP with reindeer farmer Kerry Bentivolio as its nominee. The libertarian Bentivolio is an odd fit for the district, to say the least. But Democrats were caught flat-footed by McCotter's failure as well. Syed Taj filed to run as the lone Democrat in the race and has invested considerable cash, but polls suggest he is struggling to gain traction. This race is a mess, and it is only the GOP base strength of the district that is saving Bentivolio. Either way, this race is in the spotlight and will likely be much closer than many on the outside thinks. LEAN REPUBLICAN.
At this moment, it appears that the Republicans will keep the 11th and lose the 1st leaving the Republicans with an 8-6
majority in Michigan.
Michigan Supereme Court:
This year, the Michigan Supreme Court has
two full six year terms up for grabs and one partial term ending 1/1/2015 up.
Currently, Michigan Republican’s hold a 4-3 advantage on the court. Of the three
seats up this year, two of them are held by a Republican nominee. Here’s how the make-up of
the court breaks out today.
Democratic
Nominee
|
Term Expires
|
Republican
Nominee
|
Term Expires
|
|
Michael Cavanaugh
|
1/1/2015
|
Robert Young
|
1/1/2017
|
|
Marilyn Kelly
|
1/1/2013
|
Stephen Markman
|
1/1/2013
|
|
Diane Hathaway
|
1/1/2017
|
Mary Beth Kelly
|
1/1/2019
|
|
|
|
Brian Zahra
|
1/1/2013
|
Each party has nominated three candidates for
the ballot; two candidates each for the two full terms and one candidate each
for the partial term. Below is a list of those nominees and a brief biography.
It is noteworthy to point out that Marilyn Kelly was not renominated
by the Democratic party as she is 70 years of age and unable to serve another
term on the court. Interestingly enough, the Democrats found another Kelly to
run in Connie Marie Kelly.
Republican Nominees for the term expiring 1/1/2020:
Justice Stephen Markman – Judge
Stephen Markman served as Chief Counsel of the United States Senate
Subcommittee on the Constitution and as Deputy Chief Counsel of the United
States Senate Committee on the Judiciary from 1978 to 1985. He was then nominated to be
a United States Assistant Attorney General, heading the Justice Department's
Office of Legal Policy, by President Ronald Reagan and confirmed by the Senate.
After being nominated by George H. W. Bush and approved by the United States
Senate, Markman served as a United States Attorney in Michigan from 1989-1993.
He joined the private sector firm of Miller, Canfield, Paddock & Stone in
Detroit, where he practiced until he was appointed to the 4th District Michigan
Court of Appeals by Governor John Engler in 1995. He held that
position until 1999, when Governor Engler appointed him to the Michigan Supreme
Court.
Michigan voters re-elected him to the position in 2000 and 2004.
Judge Colleen
O’Brien - Judge Colleen A. O’Brien has served as a Judge of the Oakland County
Circuit Court since winning election in 1998. Immediately following that
election, she was appointed by Governor John Engler to take office immediately,
to complete the term of her predecessor. She currently serves on the Circuit
Court Criminal/Civil Division, where she has presided over thousands of
both criminal and civil cases.
Democratic Nominees for the term expiring 1/1/2020:
Judge Connie Kelly – is a judge of the 3rd Circuit
Court in Michigan. She was elected to this position on November 4, 2004 and was
a private practice labor law attorney prior
to her service on the bench.
Republican nominee for term expiring 1/1/2015:
Justice Brian Zahra – Justice Zahra
served as a Wayne County Circuit Court judge from 1994-98 and was appointed to
the Michigan Court of Appeals by Republican Governor John Engler in 1999.
In 2004, he was nominated and ran for the Michigan Supreme
Court. While losing that bid for election, he remained on the Court of Appeals.
Zahra then went on to serve as Chief Judge Pro Tem for the Court of Appeals
from December 2005 to January 2007. On January 11, 2011, Republican Governor
Rick Snyder appointed Zahra to replace Maura Corrigan, who was in turn
appointed to head the Michigan Department of Human Services. Governor
Snyder's appointment of Zahra maintained the Republican nominees' 4-3 majority.
Democratic nominee for term expiring 1/1/2015:
Judge Shelia Johnson – Judge Johnson
was elected in November 2002 and is the first African American to serve as
Judge in the 46th District Court. In November 2008, she was re-elected for an
unopposed second term. Prior to assuming the bench, Judge Johnson was an
attorney with over 18 years of legal experience in both State and Federal
Courts. Judge Johnson was in private practice in Southfield where she specialized
in both civil and criminal litigation.
Although there is hardly any credible polling on these races, newspaper endorsements and Irish last names tend to rule the day in Supreme Court races. The general electorate just isn’t educated on many of the non-partisan races on the back side of the ballot. TV commercials have done a lot to bolster the name identification of the candidates, but the results of these and other nonpartisan elections usually rest on the back of voter turnout. The major turnovers in the court came at times of drastically increased Democratic voter turnout (2008) and reduced Democratic voter turnout (1998).
Michigan House Elections:
The race for control of the Michigan House of Representatives is up for grabs once again this year. Although roughly 95 of the seats will likely have a predictable outcome, there are 16 seats that would be considered toss-ups going into the final couple weeks of the campaign. The winners of these 16 seats will decide who controls the House for the 2013-2014 legislative session. Currently, Republicans hold a 64-46 edge. Democrats need to pick up 9 seats to share control and 10 seats to gain control. Below is an analysis of 17 races that will play a role in deciding whether or not the Democrats will take control of the chamber. These races are ranked in order of their likelihood of changing hands.
1. House District 76 - Newly
converted Republican Representative Roy Schmidt faces Democrat Winnie Brinks in
this 51% Republican seat. It appears that Mr. Schmidt’s party switch scheme was
fatal and it is widely believed that Ms. Brinks has this race wrapped
up. LEAN DEMOCRAT.
2. House District 84 - Republican Dan
Grimshaw ousted Representative Kurt Damrow in the primary election in August
and is set to face former Representative Terry Brown, who lost to Damrow in
2010. This seat covers Tuscola and Huron Counties and has a 55% Republican
base. This race will likely be close until the end with a slight edge to Brown
who has considerable name ID. This would be a pick-up for
Democrats. LEAN
DEMOCRAT.
3. House District 101 - Representative Ray Franz (Republican) faces Democrat Allen
O’Shea in this seat which includes Mason,
Manistee, Benzie and Leelanau Counties. This seat has a 53% Republican base.
This race remains close but it appears
Mr. O’Shea has the edge at this moment and has a better ground game than Representative
Franz. While the seat is slightly Republican, it is considered one of
the more volatile seats given the results of recent elections. LEAN DEMOCRAT.
4. House District 57 - Representative
Nancy Jenkins (Republican) faces former Democratic State Senator Jim Berryman
in this seat that includes most of Leelanau County. This seat has a 53%
Republican base. This race remains very close, but sources say
Mr. Berryman has the edge at this moment. LEAN DEMOCRAT.
5.
House District
91 - Representative Holly Hughes (Republican) faces Democrat Colleen
LaMonte in this seat which includes much of Muskegon County. This seat has a 52% Democratic base. This
seat has switched parties more than any other seat in the last 30 years. This
race will likely stay close until the end with no clear leader at this point. TOSS UP.
6. House District 71 - Representative Deb Shaughnessy (Republican) faces a rematch with
her 2010 opponent, Democrat Theresa Abed,
whom she narrowly defeated. This is includes most of Eaton County and has a 51%
Republican base. Recent polling
suggests that it will be close until Election Day. TOSS UP.
7.
House District 52 - Representative Mark Ouimet
(Republican) faces Gretchen Driskell in this that covers parts of Washtenaw County. This seat has a 52% Republican base. Both
sides are poised to spend significant resources here and this one will likely go down to the wire. TOSS UP.
8.
House District
110 - Representative Matt Huuki faces Democrat Scott Dianda in this seat
covering the northwest portion of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. This seat has a 53% Democratic
base. This race is a rematch from 2010 and it appears it
will be as
close this time around. Polling suggests a significant switch in party affiliation
in the U.P. from Democrat to Republican, but this race will be close
regardless. TOSS UP.
9. House District
63 – Republican
Speaker of the House Jase Bolger is facing a stiff challenge from Democrat Bill
Farmer who is capitalizing on the scandal
involving the Speaker and Representative Roy Schmidt, who switched parties
earlier this year. Democrats have spent more than $300,000 on network
ads attacking Mr. Bolger for his role in the election scheme. But it is still a 57 percent GOP seat, and Mr. Farmer is
unknown. That said, polling suggests that this race is too close to call. TOSS UP.
10. House District 39 - Republican Klint Kesto faces Democrat Pam Jackson in this open seat
which includes West Bloomfield, Commerce and Wixom in Oakland County. This seat has a 52%
Republican base. Klint Kesto is a first time candidate who won a crowded
primary, while Jackson has run for office several times and lost a close
contest in 2010. This is ranked as one of
the top battleground open seats in the House. TOSS UP.
11. House District 67 - Republican Jeff Oesterle faces Democrat Tom Cochren in this seat covering southern Ingham County. This seat has a 52% Democratic base. Mr. Oesterle narrowly lost to incumbent Representative Barb Byrum in 2010. Recent polling suggests Mr. Oesterle has significant name identification and will likely keep this race close until the end. This race is a top target for both parties and is too close to call at the moment. TOSS UP.
12. House District 25 - Republican Sean Clark is facing off against Democrat Henry Yanez in this seat consisting portions of Sterling Heights and Warren. This seat has a 52% Democratic base. This seat is targeted by both caucuses and will likely see significant attention and resources this month. This race is too close to call at this time. TOSS UP.
13. House District 103 - Representative Bruce Rendon faces Democrat Lon Johnson in this seat that includes Kalkaska, Crawford, Missaukee, Roscommon, and Ogemaw Counties. This seat has a 56% Republican base. Both parties are spending significant resources in this race and it will likely remain close until Election Day. LEAN REPUBLICAN.
14. House District 108 - Representative Ed McBroom faces Democrat Sharon Gray in this seat covering the Southwest Upper Peninsula of Michigan. This seat has a 51% Democratic base. In 2010 Republicans won 2 of the 3 U.P. seats for the first time in decades. Polling suggests a slight advantage for Republicans this year also. Right now, Representative McBroom maintains this advantage, but it will be close on Election Day. LEAN REPUBLICAN.
15. House District 70 - Representative Rick Outman (Republican) faces a rematch versus former Representative Mike Huckleberry (Democrat) in this seat that includes Montcalm and parts of Gratiot Counties. This seat has a 57% Republican base. LEAN REPUBLICAN.
16. House District 23 - Representative Pat Somerville (Republican) pulled off a stunning victory in 2010 in a seat covering most of southern Wayne County. This seat has a 53% Democratic base. He faces Tom Boritzki in the General election, who has not garnered much favor from the Democratic establishment. Pundits have this race leaning to Somerville at this moment. LEAN REPUBLICAN.
17. House District 106 - Representative Peter Pettalia (Republican) faces Democrat Kenneth Hubbard in this seat covering Iosco, Alcona, Alpena, Presque Isle, and Cheboygan Counties. This seat has a 51% Republican base. This seat has changed hands often in the last 20 years due to the strong Democratic base in Alpena. Mr. Pettalia has been a tireless campaigner and looks to have a slight advantage over his opponent at this moment. LEAN REPUBLICAN.
Michigan Ballot Proposals:
11. House District 67 - Republican Jeff Oesterle faces Democrat Tom Cochren in this seat covering southern Ingham County. This seat has a 52% Democratic base. Mr. Oesterle narrowly lost to incumbent Representative Barb Byrum in 2010. Recent polling suggests Mr. Oesterle has significant name identification and will likely keep this race close until the end. This race is a top target for both parties and is too close to call at the moment. TOSS UP.
12. House District 25 - Republican Sean Clark is facing off against Democrat Henry Yanez in this seat consisting portions of Sterling Heights and Warren. This seat has a 52% Democratic base. This seat is targeted by both caucuses and will likely see significant attention and resources this month. This race is too close to call at this time. TOSS UP.
13. House District 103 - Representative Bruce Rendon faces Democrat Lon Johnson in this seat that includes Kalkaska, Crawford, Missaukee, Roscommon, and Ogemaw Counties. This seat has a 56% Republican base. Both parties are spending significant resources in this race and it will likely remain close until Election Day. LEAN REPUBLICAN.
14. House District 108 - Representative Ed McBroom faces Democrat Sharon Gray in this seat covering the Southwest Upper Peninsula of Michigan. This seat has a 51% Democratic base. In 2010 Republicans won 2 of the 3 U.P. seats for the first time in decades. Polling suggests a slight advantage for Republicans this year also. Right now, Representative McBroom maintains this advantage, but it will be close on Election Day. LEAN REPUBLICAN.
15. House District 70 - Representative Rick Outman (Republican) faces a rematch versus former Representative Mike Huckleberry (Democrat) in this seat that includes Montcalm and parts of Gratiot Counties. This seat has a 57% Republican base. LEAN REPUBLICAN.
16. House District 23 - Representative Pat Somerville (Republican) pulled off a stunning victory in 2010 in a seat covering most of southern Wayne County. This seat has a 53% Democratic base. He faces Tom Boritzki in the General election, who has not garnered much favor from the Democratic establishment. Pundits have this race leaning to Somerville at this moment. LEAN REPUBLICAN.
17. House District 106 - Representative Peter Pettalia (Republican) faces Democrat Kenneth Hubbard in this seat covering Iosco, Alcona, Alpena, Presque Isle, and Cheboygan Counties. This seat has a 51% Republican base. This seat has changed hands often in the last 20 years due to the strong Democratic base in Alpena. Mr. Pettalia has been a tireless campaigner and looks to have a slight advantage over his opponent at this moment. LEAN REPUBLICAN.
Michigan Ballot Proposals:
PROPOSAL 12-1
A REFERENDUM ON
PUBLIC ACT 4 OF 2011 – THE
EMERGENCY MANAGER LAW Public Act 4 of 2011
would:
- Establish criteria to assess the financial condition of local government units, including school districts.
- Authorize Governor to appoint an emergency manager (EM) upon state finding of a financial emergency, and allow the EM to act in place of local government officials.
- Require EM to develop financial and operating plans, which may include modification or termination of contracts,reorganization of government, and determination of expenditures, services, and use of assets until the emergency is resolved.
- Alternatively, authorize state-appointed review team to enter into a local government approved consent decree.
People Voting Yes Are Saying…
- A “YES” vote would uphold PA 4. This law ensures the state’s ability to offer early financial intervention and assistance to schools and local governments that are struggling financially before they reach a crisis.
- Repealing the law would impede the ability of the state to provide important tools necessary to address immediate financial crises and will put state taxpayers on the hook for these locally incurred bad debts.
- Local governments and schools currently being helped by this law could be adversely affected by its repeal, since the emergency managers could be forced to step down resulting in a reversal of financial stability.
People Voting No Are Saying…
- A “NO” vote would repeal PA 4. This law would give too much power and oversight to the unelected emergency managers and would undercut the authority of local elected officials.
- The law could impose substantial costs and expenses on affected local municipalities and school districts to get out of financial distress without providing new revenues.
- The law would give the emergency manager wide discretion to invalidate contracts and impede existing collective bargaining agreements.
PROPOSAL 12-2
A PROPOSAL TO AMEND THE STATE CONSTITUTION REGARDING COLLECTIVE BARGAINING
This proposal would:
Grant public and private employees the constitutional right to organize and bargain collectively through labor unions.
Grant public and private employees the constitutional right to organize and bargain collectively through labor unions.
Override state laws that regulate hours and conditions of employment to the extent that those laws conflict with collective bargaining agreements.
People Voting Yes Are Saying…
Protection of collective bargaining should be a constitutional right for workers to assist employees in negotiating a fair
contract and to protect their rights.
Collective bargaining should not just be a right provided to certain employees but should be extended to all employees regardless of their employer.
This proposal would protect public and private employee’s jobs, wages, and benefits by making collective bargaining a constitutional right.
People Voting No Are Saying…
This amendment would limit or eliminate the state’s ability to regulate labor activities for both public and private
employees.
This proposal would repeal an unidentified number of existing laws affecting both employees and job providers and
would have an unknown impact on this vital relationship.
It is unwise to lock this proposal in the Michigan Constitution as it will make it difficult in the future for elected leaders to adapt to changing conditions.
PROPOSAL 12-3
A PROPOSAL TO AMEND THE STATE CONSTITUTION TO ESTABLISH A STANDARD FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY
This proposal would:
Require electric utilities to provide at least 25% of their annual retail sales of electricity from renewable energy sources, which are wind, solar, biomass, and hydropower, by 2025.
Require electric utilities to provide at least 25% of their annual retail sales of electricity from renewable energy sources, which are wind, solar, biomass, and hydropower, by 2025.
Limit to not more than 1% per year electric utility rate increases charged to consumers only to achieve compliance with the renewable energy standard.
Allow annual extensions of the deadline to meet the 25% standard in order to prevent rate increases over the 1% limit.
Require the legislature to enact additional laws to encourage the use of Michigan made equipment and employment of Michigan residents.
People Voting Yes Are Saying…
The amendment will require electricity providers to make major investments in Michigan, which will benefit the economy and create green jobs to promote clean energy.
The proposal protects consumers in the short term by capping rate increases caused by renewable energy regulations at1% per year.
Using clean, renewable energy will help reduce pollution and protect Michigan’s air, water, and land and help make Michigan more energy dependant.
People Voting No Are Saying…
Michigan consumers already pay the highest electricity rates in the Midwest and, despite the 1% annual cap on rate increases, consumers will experience long-term rate inflation until the renewable energy investments are paid off.
Michigan’s current energy mandate of 10% of electricity to be derived from renewable energy sources by 2015 still has not been achieved.
It is unwise to lock this proposal in the Michigan Constitution as it will make it difficult in the future to adapt to changing conditions and technology.
PROPOSAL 12-4
A PROPOSAL TO AMEND THE STATE CONSTITUTION TO ESTABLISH THE MICHIGAN QUALITY HOME CARE COUNCIL AND PROVIDE COLLECTIVE BARGAINING FOR IN-HOME CARE WORKERS
This proposal would:
Allow in-home care workers to bargain collectively with the Michigan Quality Home Care Council (MQHCC). Continue the current exclusive representative of in-home care workers until modified in accordance with labor laws.
Require MQHCC to provide training for in-home care workers, create a registry of workers who pass background checks, and provide financial services to patients to manage the cost of in-home care.
Preserve patients’ rights to hire in-home care workers who are not referred from the MQHCC registry who are bargaining unit members.
Authorize the MQHCC to set minimum compensation standards and terms and conditions of employment.
People Voting Yes Are Saying…
The proposal would provide in-home care workers a constitutional right to collective bargaining.
The Michigan Quality Home Care Council would provide training, background checks and a registry of in-home care workers which elderly and disabled persons may choose to hire for daily living assistance.
Would protect the authority, duties and obligations of the current Michigan Quality Community Care Council to provide access to well-trained in-home care workers.
People Voting No Are Saying…
These services are already available and could force terms of employment, such as joining a union and paying union dues, on in-home care workers, including relatives of the patient.
While all in-home care workers are directly employed by the elderly and disabled persons in need of services, they would be treated as public employees for the sole purpose of unionization.
It is unwise to lock this proposal in the Michigan Constitution as it will make it difficult in the future to update its provision to address changing conditions.
PROPOSAL 12-5
A PROPOSAL TO AMEND THE STATE CONSTITUTION TO LIMIT THE ENACTMENT OF NEW TAXES BY STATE GOVERNMENT
This proposal would:
Require a 2/3 majority vote of the State House and the State Senate, or a statewide vote of the people at a November election, in order for the State of Michigan to impose new or additional taxes on taxpayers or expand the base of taxation or increasing the rate of taxation.
This section shall in no way be construed to limit or modify tax limitations otherwise created in this Constitution.
People Voting Yes Are Saying…
This proposal would require a 2/3 majority vote of both the House and Senate or statewide vote of the people to enact tax increases.
The higher threshold for raising taxes would make it harder to impose new or additional taxes, expand the tax base, or increase tax rates.
The two most recent tax increases in Michigan were passed with support from only a slim majority of the Legislature.
Had this proposal been in place, it is likely that neither of these increases could have been passed by the Legislature.
People Voting No Are Saying…
This proposal would limit the Legislature’s ability to balance the state budget; and could result in funding cuts to education, public safety, or infrastructure projects.
This proposal would have no impact on current tax rates and could impede future tax reform for individuals and job providers.
It is unwise to lock this proposal in the Michigan Constitution as it will make it difficult in the future to update its provision to address changing conditions.
PROPOSAL 12-6
A PROPOSAL TO AMEND THE STATE CONSTITUTION REGARDING CONSTRUCTION OF INTERNATIONAL BRIDGES AND TUNNELS
This proposal would:
Require the approval of a majority of voters at a statewide election and in each municipality where “new international bridges or tunnels for motor vehicles” are to be located before the State of Michigan may expend state funds or resources for acquiring land, designing, soliciting bids for, constructing, financing, or promoting new international bridges or tunnels.
Create a definition of “new international bridges or tunnels for motor vehicles” that means, “any bridge or tunnel which is not open to the public and serving traffic as of January 1, 2012.”
People Voting Yes Are Saying…
Citizens should have the right to decide if the State should undertake major international bridges or tunnel projects for motor vehicles due to the possibility of ongoing taxpayer-funded expenses.
It is unclear if there is sufficient traffic to support the building of a second international bridge in Southeast Michigan and the State should not be in competition with a private entity.
This proposal may put the current Michigan-Canadian bridge project before the Michigan voters for their approval or rejection.
People Voting No Are Saying…
Given the traffic volume in Southeast Michigan, a second international bridge is critical for economic development and job creation in our state and will be paid for by Canadian funds and not state tax dollars.
The international bridge project agreement between Michigan and Canada may be exempt from the restrictions of this proposal.
It is unwise to lock this proposal in the Michigan Constitution as it will make it difficult in the future for elected leaders to adapt to changing conditions.
For those interested on how to get involved go to http://www.mdpac.org to find more information.
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